IOWA CITY, Iowa — A new study examining the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the predictive validity of high school grade point average (HSGPA) and ACT Composite scores has uncovered significant changes in how these metrics forecast first-year college performance. The research, conducted by ACT, reveals that while the predictive power of high school GPA has notably decreased since 2020, ACT Composite scores have remained a reliable indicator of students' early college success.

Early success in college has been shown to be an indicator of successful and timely degree completion. HSGPA and standardized test scores such as those from the ACT have been used to predict a student’s first-year college GPA (FYGPA), which offers insights for students to better prepare for higher education and for colleges to identify students who may need additional support.

ACT researchers reviewed and analyzed students’ ACT Composite scores, self-reported HSGPAs, and official FYGPAs. The researchers used HSGPA and ACT Composite score to predict a student’s FYGPA, and then analyzed how these predictions differed from the student’s actual FYGPA.

The research found a rise in the mean HSGPA from 3.44 in 2017 to 3.59 in 2021. At the same time, ACT Composite scores decreased from 22.51 in 2018 to 21.90 in 2021.

“When you examine how these trends correspond with first-year college GPA, our research demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, high school GPA has become a less consistent predictor while ACT Composite scores have shown relative stability in predicting first-year GPA,” said Dr. Edgar I. Sanchez, a lead research scientist at ACT and author of the report. “In light of these findings, we must reevaluate the predictive power of high school grades and use a more holistic approach for predicting student success, so students have an accurate assessment of how they’re likely to perform in their first year of college.”

As colleges work to ensure they are accurately evaluating students as part of the admission process, and education grapples with the ongoing effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the study’s findings provide important considerations for how colleges can best evaluate student performance.

“As many colleges increasingly rely on high school GPA for admission, course placement, and scholarship decisions — particularly with standardized test scores becoming optional — understanding and addressing the effect of grade inflation is more critical than ever,” ACT CEO Janet Godwin said. “Accurate assessment of academic readiness is essential for supporting students effectively and ensuring they are prepared for the challenges of higher education.”

The study is based on an analytical sample of 40,194 students across 10 postsecondary institutions. Based on these findings, colleges and other decision makers should consider a more holistic approach, in which HSGPA and ACT Composite score combined provide a unique value and nuanced prediction of student FYGPA. Using both HSGPA and ACT Composite score together improved predictions of FYGPA more effectively than using either measure alone, according to the study.

Key findings:

• The onset of the pandemic saw significant grade inflation in high schools. This study demonstrates that after the onset of the pandemic, HSGPA has become a less consistent predictor of FYGPA.
• The relationship between ACT Composite score and predicted FYGPA has remained stable across all cohorts indicating that the ACT Composite score was and remains a consistent predictor of FYGPA despite the pandemic.
• Using both HSGPA and ACT Composite score together improved predictions of FYGPA more effectively than using either measure alone.
• The mean ACT Composite score slightly decreased from 22.34 (2017) to 21.90 (2021).
• The mean HSGPA increased from 3.44 (2017) to 3.59 (2021).
• The mean FYGPA showed a steady increase from 2.81 (2017) to 2.92 (2019), dropped to 2.78 (2020), and then rebounded to 2.84 (2021).

About ACT
ACT is transforming college and career readiness pathways so that everyone can discover and fulfill their potential. Grounded in more than 65 years of research, ACT’s learning resources, assessments, research, and work-ready credentials are trusted by students, job seekers, educators, schools, government agencies, and employers in the U.S. and around the world to help people achieve their education and career goals at every stage of life. Visit us at www.act.org.  

Contact: Allie Ciaramella; allie.ciaramella@act.org